---
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tags: [excalidraw, quants, capability-map, decision-judgment]
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==⚠  Switch to EXCALIDRAW VIEW in the MORE OPTIONS menu of this document. ⚠==

# Excalidraw Data

## Text Elements
未来 24 个月路线：按验收门推进，并让横切保障在每一道门同时生效 ^t001

时间只是有每周稳定投入时的条件估计；如果数据、风险、成本、测试、观测和退出证据没出现，就不要因为日期到了而升级。 ^t002

Gate A ^t005

现金层生产验收 ^t006

0–3 个月 ^t007

≥60 日带 run ID 的日志 ^t009

目标 / 执行 / 券商三账可对 ^t011

异常测试、告警与 kill switch ^t013

真实成本偏差与恢复演练 ^t015

Gate B ^t019

Beta 政策组合 ^t020

3–6 个月 ^t021

目标权重与再平衡版本化 ^t023

风险预算、成本与允许偏离 ^t025

≥3 压力情景和数据检查 ^t027

模拟跟踪、归因与变更记录 ^t029

Gate C ^t033

第一条 Alpha 基线 ^t034

6–12 个月 ^t035

PIT 股票池、标签与血缘 ^t037

OLS/因子/LightGBM 同切分 ^t039

walk-forward、暴露、换手、成本 ^t041

实验注册与明确失效条件 ^t043

Gate D ^t047

跨层组合与执行 ^t048

12–18 个月 ^t049

统一 target / order / fill 合同 ^t051

券商下单、撤单、重连、对账 ^t053

实时限额 + 日级 PnL 归因 ^t055

安全降级、回放与恢复 ^t057

Gate E ^t061

多策略经营 ^t062

18–24 个月 ^t063

≥3 条低相关策略与容量上限 ^t065

资本分配、相关性与漂移监控 ^t067

生命周期、降权、退役与归档 ^t069

共享 runbook、权限和审计 ^t071

每一道门共同验收 ^t073

数据版本与血缘｜风险预算与限额｜成本与容量｜自动测试与回放｜结构化日志、指标与告警｜权限、备份、降级、停机与退役 ^t074

主线 ^t076

先验收 Gate A，再并行做 B/C；Gate D 以前，不追求复杂模型数量。 ^t077

每个产物带 dataset / code / config / run / strategy version，能够复现和回放。 ^t078

暂停项 ^t080

高频、期权裸卖、重杠杆、另类数据军备竞赛、自建大模型集群。 ^t081

这些不是永远不做，而是当前无法提高最短板的验收通过率。 ^t082

到优秀个人的最短路径不是“模型更大”，而是 Gate A–D 都能稳定重跑、解释、对账、降级和退役；到小团队则再加共享平台、评审与运维接班。 ^t083

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```
%%